Scored claims per month over the life of the story — the shape of the escalation, not a snapshot of it.
2025-05: 2 claims, mean impact +0.50
2025-06: 34 claims, mean impact +0.12
2025-07: 29 claims, mean impact +0.05
2025-08: 27 claims, mean impact +0.26
2025-09: 32 claims, mean impact +0.03
2025-10: 42 claims, mean impact -0.14
2025-11: 27 claims, mean impact +0.20
The developments that moved this
The highest-impact scored claims across the whole story, newest wording kept when a development was reported many times. Each is dated — an old number is not a current one.
+1.00
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in the loss of nearly a billion barrels of oil, with the shortage worsening daily.
JPMorgan analysts warn that disabling Kharg Island would rapidly trigger upstream shut-ins, putting half of Iran's national output at risk and eliminating the previously assumed 20-day storage buffer from day one.
Latest
The most recent scored claims on this story, in the order they landed.
+0.60
Chevron is reportedly close to securing an agreement for access to two additional oil fields in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt.
The White House announced a deal with Venezuela that grants the U.S. control over 65 billion barrels of oil, creating a potential windfall for Chevron.
Coverage and impact disagree: CVX draws the most claims (506) at +0.17, while HAL scores highest at +0.35 on just 41. Being talked about most is not the same as being moved most.
2025-12: 21 claims, mean impact +0.26
2026-01: 70 claims, mean impact +0.20
2026-02: 33 claims, mean impact +0.28
2026-03: 138 claims, mean impact +0.19
2026-04: 55 claims, mean impact +0.16
2026-05: 144 claims, mean impact +0.24
2026-06: 114 claims, mean impact +0.22
2026-07: 111 claims, mean impact +0.27
2026-08: 75 claims, mean impact +0.19
2026-09: 33 claims, mean impact +0.38
May
Aug
Nov
Feb
May
Aug
Coverage peaked in May 2026 at 144 scored claims. Column height is claim volume; colour is the mean scored impact of that month — green where the month read positive for these names, red where it read negative. A tall red column is a busy month that went against them.
A significant disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz from the Israel-Iran conflict could push oil prices to $120 per barrel, with persistent disruptions potentially driving Brent crude to new record highs above $150.
Iran is threatening to halt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit point for approximately one-third of the world's seaborne crude exports.
Armed conflict with Iran is impeding roughly 20% of global oil supplies flowing through the Strait of Hormuz via attacks on crude-carrying ships and regional infrastructure.
The U.S. government has secured de facto control over 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan crude reserves through a partnership with North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP).
