VLO VLO

The price pays for

• A sustained period of exceptional refining margins driven by global supply disruptions, including the loss of roughly 5 million barrels per day of capacity.
• A higher permanent floor for mid-cycle refining profitability, with management's claim of structural tightness already reflected in the valuation.
• The swing from a loss to a $717 million operating income in renewable diesel, with the assumption that D4 RIN values remain above feedstock costs through 2027.
• A surge in free cash flow to $5.03 billion, which the market treats as the new baseline rather than a cyclical peak.

It declines to pay for