Pagaya: I Was Wrong On Profitability, Upgrading To Hold

Impact · against what's priced in

Pagaya's Q3 results and raised full-year guidance are positive, but the shift toward unit economics over volume and rising funding costs limit the upside. The news validates the business model's sustainability but introduces risks to the near-term run-rate EPS.

PGY+0.30

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In context

Raised 2026 income guidance to $162-$182 million and seven straight quarters of GAAP profit validate the company's profitability trajectory, though lower Q4 volume guidance may offset some of these gains.

Read from the article alone

• earnings▲8%
• guidance
• PGY
• credit performance
• fintech
• profitability
• unit economics

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