Nebius Stock: The Bull Case, the Bear Case, and My Call Before Nov. 12

Impact · against what's priced in

The $3.5 billion Citigroup facility for Nebius is a material positive that provides a liquidity bridge for its massive capex plan, reducing the immediate risk of equity dilution. Other targets mentioned, such as the $7-9 billion revenue run-rate, are already baked into the price's assumption of successful Meta contract conversion.

NBIS+0.30

Not in the price yet

The price assumes

Manageable capital structure without destructive dilution from $5B convertible notes