ADM ADM

The price pays for

• The price assumes the recent 129% year-over-year profit surge in Ag Services & Oilseeds is largely a cyclical peak, requiring revenue to decline at a 5.1% annual rate over the next decade.
• It reflects a flat 5.2% free-cash-flow margin, meaning it pays for the current earnings recovery but does not assume margins will structurally expand from here.
• It prices in a partial reversion of the $100 million mark-to-market and timing benefits, treating them as transient rather than permanent.
• It gives the Nutrition segment credit for its 51% operating profit recovery but treats the $80-$100 million uplift from precision fermentation and natural colors as incremental, not transformational.

It declines to pay for