Will Caterpillar's Strong Volume Growth Keep Driving Sales Up in 2026?

Impact · against what's priced in

Caterpillar's report of record revenues and volume-led growth provides the evidence the market has been discounting. By confirming that the record backlog is converting into high-teens revenue growth and volume gains, the news validates the bull case the current price previously rejected.

CAT+0.40

Challenges what's priced in

The price assumes

The assumption that the 79% year-over-year backlog increase converts into sustained high-teens revenue growth

The market was not paying for the thesis that the record backlog would drive high-teens growth, but Caterpillar has now raised its 2026 revenue outlook to the mid-to-high teens, backed by $5.4 billion in volume gains in H1.

What CAT's price assumes · Sep 3

• CAT
• construction equipment
• heavy equipment
• industrial machinery
• mining equipment
• revenue outlook
• sales volume

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