The Metals Company's Big Bet Now Comes Down to a License

Impact · against what's priced in

TMC is a binary regulatory bet with significant upside tied to US government intervention, though it faces a critical cash-burn window before 2027/2028 revenue. While the market has priced in near-term timeline delays, the potential for US national security fast-tracking creates a high-convexity catalyst.

TMC+0.30

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In context

The ability to bypass UN restrictions via US national security licensing provides a significant path to revenue that offsets the regulatory pushback from the International Seabed Authority.

Read from the article alone

• national security▲1250%
• regulation
• TMC
• cobalt
• copper
• critical minerals
• deep sea mining
• electric vehicles
• licensing