Prediction: TSMC Stock Is Going to $1,200 by 2030

Impact · against what's priced in

The news is largely noise as the market already accounts for the strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance. The only potentially material catalyst is the report of upcoming price increases for advanced nodes, which supports the thesis that TSMC can expand margins beyond 60%—a scenario the market currently declines to price in.

TSM+0.30

Challenges what's priced in

The price assumes

Gross margin expansion beyond 60%

While the market currently declines to pay for gross margin expansion beyond 60%, the report of planned 5% to 10% price increases next year provides concrete evidence of the pricing power needed to achieve this.

What TSM's price assumes · Sep 3

• TSM▲240%
• earnings▲14%
• guidance▲12%
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