Political pushback against data centers means U.S. AI capex is likely to peak in 2027-2028: Analyst

Impact · against what's priced in

The forecast of a capex peak by 2027-2028 is largely non-material for GOOGL because the market is already skeptical of AI's ability to drive margin expansion or accelerate growth beyond current levels. Since the current price refuses to pay for aggressive AI-driven upside, a ceiling on future infrastructure spending does not significantly shift the valuation.

GOOGL−0.05

Already priced in

The price assumes

Cloud revenue growing at or just above the current 35.8% pace, without assuming a further acceleration

The analyst's claim that AI capex will peak in 2027-2028 supports the market's current refusal to price in sustained cloud growth above 40% or aggressive AI-driven margin expansion.

What GOOGL's price assumes · Sep 2

• data centers▲3%
• ai
• GOOGL
• infrastructure
• capex
• political risk

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