PM vs. MO: Which Tobacco Dividend to Trust for the Next Decade

Impact · against what's priced in

The article provides no new catalysts for either stock, as the data on Philip Morris's growth and Altria's structural decay are already embedded in their respective valuations. PM's growth targets and MO's NJOY impairments were previously accounted for, leaving the stock prices unchanged.

MO−0.10

Already priced in

The price assumes

An inflection point where smokeable volume declines accelerate past the point where price increases can cover the gap

The data showing 4.5% price realization barely outpacing a 3.2% shipment decline supports the risk the market is already monitoring regarding margin compression.

What MO's price assumes · Aug 27

• regulation
• dividends
• MO
• PM
• earnings guidance
• income investing
• litigation
• retirement
• smoke free
• tobacco

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