Seeking Alpha
03 Jun 2026, 11:26 UTC · 2h ago
Oil Fundamentals - U.S. Shale Output Growth Will Not Come To The World's Rescue This Time Around
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Seeking Alpha
03 Jun 2026, 11:26 UTC · 2h ago
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The EIA forecasts a global oil supply surplus of 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) next year. — A massive supply surplus typically leads to significant downward pressure on crude oil prices.
-0.80The EIA assumes US crude oil output will increase by 0.6 mb/d next year. — Higher US production increases global supply, contributing to the projected surplus and bearish price sentiment.
-0.40Historical data suggests the EIA's projected US output growth of 0.6 mb/d is questionable compared to the decade average of 0.2 mb/d. — If US production underperforms the forecast, the projected supply surplus would shrink, providing a bullish offset to the EIA outlook.
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