CNBC
02 Jul 2026, 12:47 UTC · 2h ago
Most prediction market contracts have low volume, leaving users exposed to volatility and bots
NewsImpactScreener rates every claim in this story for market impact and maps it to the tickers most exposed.
CNBC
02 Jul 2026, 12:47 UTC · 2h ago
NewsImpactScreener rates every claim in this story for market impact and maps it to the tickers most exposed.
What the story claims
4 claims · each scored for market impact
Approximately 70% of all closed markets on Polymarket saw under $10,000 in reported volume from 2021 to May 2026. — High prevalence of 'thin' markets indicates significant liquidity gaps, increasing volatility and slippage for traders.
-0.40Over 80% of volume in markets under $10,000 on Polymarket is generated by bots, whereas retail traders have faced losses in these shallow markets. — Dominance by bots in low-volume markets suggests retail traders are at a structural disadvantage in those specific segments.
-0.30Evercore ISI strategists found that most quoted probabilities on prediction platforms sit in the thinly traded tail where calibration is weakest. — Reduces the reliability of prediction markets as a signal for institutional investors if the majority of markets are poorly calibrated.
-0.20Continue reading
6 related stories
Top 1 mover · tap to explore
Short-term markets (up to a week) with high participant counts represent the highest volume and most capital-efficient segments for traders. — Identifies a specific, liquid niche that remains attractive for sophisticated risk capital.
+0.20Free · No account
Get a free daily PDF briefing — the last 24 hours of news, with summaries and the market-impact score for each story, delivered an hour before the open.
We’ll watch
Pre-filled from this story — remove any you don’t want. Add more tickers & tags or fine-tune your watchlist anytime — every email has an edit link, no account needed.
Free forever · one email a day, max · unsubscribe in one click.How it works
Market Watch
22h ago
