Micron: Wishful Thinking At Its Finest

Impact · against what's priced in

The deceleration in DRAM ASP growth and guidance for declining margins confirm that the AI memory boom is peaking, supporting the market's refusal to price in a structural earnings reset. Because the current price already reflects near-term AI demand and HBM3E sell-outs, this confirmation of a cyclical peak is marginally negative as it validates the bears' thesis.

MU−0.10

Already priced in

The price assumes

Near-term earnings expansion, with adjusted EPS already at $25.11 and gross margins at 84.6%

The drop in DRAM ASP growth from 62% to 19% and the guide for declining gross margins confirm that the near-term earnings expansion already reflected in the price has likely peaked.

What MU's price assumes · Sep 9

• guidance▲5%
• MU▲2%
• earnings
• semiconductors
• capex
• dram
• gross margins
• nand