Lumentum: Sold Out Through 2029, But Something Bigger Is Coming

Impact · against what's priced in

Lumentum's sold-out capacity through 2029 provides fundamental support but does not act as a catalyst because the market is already pricing in significant growth. The shift to higher-value SKUs directly supports the growth and margin trajectories that the current price specifically declines to believe, suggesting potential upside if these transitions materialize as described.

LITE+0.30

Challenges what's priced in

The price assumes

The early-stage growth in 1.6T, OCS, and ultra-high-power lasers proving to be a second major demand wave

While the market is not yet paying for a second major demand wave, management's confirmation of sold-out capacity through 2029 and a transition to 1.6T transceivers and 200G modules suggests this growth is more certain than the current price assumes.

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