CNBC
03 Aug 2026, 16:51 UTC · 1h ago
Kalshi traders are not expecting a U.S. and Iran nuclear deal soon
NewsImpactScreener rates every claim in this story for market impact and maps it to the tickers most exposed.
CNBC
03 Aug 2026, 16:51 UTC · 1h ago
NewsImpactScreener rates every claim in this story for market impact and maps it to the tickers most exposed.
What the story claims
5 claims · each scored for market impact
President Trump called off planned military strikes against Iran following requests from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Iran. — The immediate removal of a direct military conflict threat significantly lowers the geopolitical risk premium for global markets.
+0.60Oil prices dropped sharply, with WTI futures falling 6% and Brent crude falling over 4%, following the news of halted strikes and potential talks. — The price drop reflects a decrease in anticipated supply disruptions in the Middle East.
+0.50The U.S. and Iran are set to resume negotiation talks on Monday, according to President Trump. — Diplomatic engagement generally supports risk appetite, though the impact is tempered by conflicting reports from Iran.
+0.30Continue reading
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Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman stated there is no immediate plan for talks with the U.S. — Direct contradiction from Iran suggests diplomatic instability and a higher likelihood that a nuclear deal will not be reached.
-0.30Kalshi prediction markets show a less than 50% probability of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal being reached before January 2027. — Low market confidence in a long-term resolution suggests that systemic geopolitical tension will persist despite short-term de-escalation.
-0.10Free · No account
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