Inflation's Next Wave? A Critical U.S. Manufacturing Gauge Just Surged 10% Higher

Impact · against what's priced in

The surge in manufacturing input costs increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain high rates, which preserves the current bearish assumption for SoFi's lending margins. While the article mentions a SoFi promotion, this is a marketing effort rather than a shift in the macro drivers the market is currently pricing.

SOFI−0.10

Already priced in

The price assumes

Conservative guidance that assumes up to two Federal Reserve rate hikes this year

The jump in the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index to 77.9 suggests goods inflation will rise, which supports the market's current expectation of a high-rate environment and may eliminate room for planned rate cuts.

What SOFI's price assumes · Sep 4

• pce▲2700%
• SOFI▲69%
• inflation▲54%
• fed
• rates
• consumer spending
• cpi