24/7 Wall Street
22 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · 58m ago
Chinese Competitors Aren't Eroding ASML's EUV Core Monopoly
Impact · against what's priced in
The strong Q3 beat and sold-out capacity through 2028 are positive but largely clash with the market's current refusal to pay for above-consensus unit volumes. ASML's price remains constrained by a supply ceiling that the market has not yet decided to price in as a breach, while TSM's adoption timeline for High-NA EUV is already accounted for in its long-term growth narrative.
- ASML+0.40
Challenges what's priced in
- The price assumes
EUV unit volumes hitting 91 in 2027 and 113 in 2028
The market currently declines to pay for unit volumes over 30% above estimates, but the report that planned supply for 2027-2028 will fall short of demand—with orders extending into 2030—suggests these bull-case volumes are more likely than the current price assumes.
What ASML's price assumes · Aug 26
