CNBC
08 Jun 2026, 11:38 UTC · 2h ago
China is helping to cushion global oil prices below $100 — but analysts warn it won't last
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CNBC
08 Jun 2026, 11:38 UTC · 2h ago
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Story key points
5 claims · impact-rated
Global crude supplies have tumbled 14% since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. — A double-digit drop in global oil supply is a severe fundamental shock that puts strong upward pressure on prices.
+0.80China reduced crude imports from 11.7 million barrels a day in February to under 9 million by late May, acting as a primary pressure valve on prices. — A significant drop in demand from the world's largest importer directly offsets supply shocks, preventing a price spike.
-0.60Societe Generale analysts argue the long-term equilibrium price for oil will be higher to allow for the rebuilding of strategic reserves and to incentivize new production. — This suggests a structural floor for prices that is higher than current market forward curves imply.
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Fitch analysts predict Brent prices could fall sharply to an average of $70 per barrel from September if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by late July. — A restoration of logistical flows would remove the primary driver of the current price premium.
-0.40Recent direct missile strikes between Israel and Iran caused Brent crude to surge 4.9% to $97.67 and WTI to rise 4.9% to $94.93. — Direct conflict escalation increases the geopolitical risk premium and triggers immediate short-term price spikes.
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