24/7 Wall Street
28 Jul 2026, 14:53 UTC · 1h ago
A New AI Shortage Is Coming. One CEO Just Predicted it Will Be “Bigger Than Memory.
NewsImpactScreener rates every claim in this story for market impact and maps it to the tickers most exposed.
24/7 Wall Street
28 Jul 2026, 14:53 UTC · 1h ago
NewsImpactScreener rates every claim in this story for market impact and maps it to the tickers most exposed.
What the story claims
5 claims · each scored for market impact
Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston warns that indium phosphide (InP) is becoming a critical AI infrastructure bottleneck, with shortages potentially worse than those in the memory industry. — A critical material shortage for AI data centers suggests significant upside for suppliers but potential execution risks for AI hardware deployment.
+0.60Lumentum reported a supply-demand imbalance for InP exceeding 30%, with key components effectively sold out for the foreseeable future. — Strong demand and pricing power drive immediate revenue growth for the specific semiconductor material providers.
+0.50Nvidia has strategically invested in the two dominant InP producers, Lumentum and Coherent, with Coherent receiving a $2 billion R&D investment. — Nvidia's backing validates the critical nature of InP and provides these suppliers with significant capital and market credibility.
+0.40Continue reading
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Lumentum's Q3 FY2026 revenue grew 90.1% year-over-year to $808.4 million, with Q4 guidance projecting revenue up to $1.01 billion. — Strong financial performance and guidance confirm the current growth trajectory of the optical components sector.
+0.30Despite strong fundamentals and supply shortages, LITE, COHR, AXTI, and AAOI have all seen significant price declines (between 22% and 40%) over the last month. — The divergence between strong fundamentals and falling stock prices suggests a short-term bearish sentiment or a 'valuation reset' in the optical space.
-0.20Which stocks this story touches
Strong revenue growth, expanding margins, and high demand for InP components, despite a recent stock price decline.
Received a $2 billion investment from NVIDIA and is rapidly scaling production to meet high AI demand.
Driving massive demand for AI infrastructure and strategically investing in key semiconductor materials producers.
Reporting significant year-over-year growth in datacenter revenue.
Successfully closed a large capital raise to fund critical capacity for indium phosphide substrates.
Mentioned only as a historical stock pick example from 2002.
Mentioned only as a historical stock pick example from 2004.
[mutual] Lumentum and Coherent are identified as the two dominant indium phosphide producers and direct competitors.
[a_to_b] Coherent provides indium phosphide manufacturing capabilities to meet demand from NVIDIA.
[a_to_b] Lumentum provides indium phosphide components to meet demand from NVIDIA.
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